The Race of Fire: Revealing Rexa

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The main novelty lies in the fact that we have detected a clear latitudinal gradient of growing intensity and severity of flood cases with a north—south direction. In this study, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis was done for Tuzla region in the case of Prince Island fault rupture, which is the closest fault zone to the megacity Istanbul and it has been silent for centuries. Synthetic earthquake catalog is generated using Monte Carlo simulation technique and these events are used for tsunami analysis.

The results of the study show that the probability of exceedance 0. The present study describes an approach for the assessment of beach accretion—erosion, based on the joint use of data analysis, statistical methods and one-line numerical modeling. A chain method is proposed, based on the joint analysis of field data, statistical tools and numerical modeling. The coastline morphology has been examined through interannual field data, such as aerial photographs, plane-bathymetric surveys and seabed characterization.

Hazardous sea waves that have irregular structures approach the coast very often. They should be characterized by their statistical characteristics. They are found here within an analytical theory of shallow-water wave run-up on a beach without breaking. Obtained distribution functions can be used for estimates of the flooding zone characteristics in marine natural hazards.

Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment. The performances of flash flood forecasts are evaluated using a meteorological model forcing a rainfall-runoff model.

Both deterministic single forecast of the most likely weather and ensemble forecasts set or ensemble of forecasts have been produced on three sub-catchments of the Eastern Pyrenees exhibiting different rainfall regimes. Results show that both overall discharge forecast and flood warning are improved by the ensemble strategies with respect to the deterministic forecast.


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To consider potential future urban developments in pluvial flood risk assessment, we develop empirical relationships for imperviousness and flood damages based on an analysis of existing urban characteristics. Results suggest that 1 data resolutions must be carefully selected; 2 there are lower limits for the spatial scale at which predictions can be generated; and 3 depth-dependent damage estimates are challenging to reproduce empirically and can be vulnerable to simulation artifacts.

One of the biggest challenges in studying reservoir-triggered seismicity RTS is to identify factors that can trigger seismicity. A spatial database and a web viewer were created, gathering the data pertinent to the RTS study. Despite California being a region highly prone to seismic activity, most homeowners are not covered against this risk. This study analyses the reasons for homeowners to purchase insurance to cover earthquake losses, with application in California.

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Results suggest that only two extreme situations would lead all owners to cover their home with insurance: 1 a widespread belief that a devastating earthquake is imminent; 2 a massive decrease in the average premium amount by a factor exceeding 6. Flood frequency curves are usually highly uncertain since they are based on short data sets of measured discharges or weather conditions. To decrease the confidence intervals, an efficient bootstrap method is developed. With this method, the data set of measured discharges of the Rhine river is extended by approximately years.

The study shows that historic flood events decrease the confidence interval of the flood frequency curve significantly, specifically in the range of large floods.

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Koslanda in Sri Lanka is on people's minds due to frequently occurring landslides as the area is made vulnerable by both climatic and geomorphological settings. Integration of radar and optical remote sensing can be used to quite satisfactorily predict landslides with complementary information at a smaller scale. Inclusion of radar-derived factors in landslide susceptibility analysis of a bivariate and multivariate nature improves the prediction of high- and very-low-susceptibility areas. We developed a mobile App for Android devices which receives the alerts generated by a network-based Early Warning system, predicts the expected ground shaking intensity and the available lead-time at the user position, and provides customized messages to inform the user about the proper reaction during the alert.

The app represents a powerful tool for informing in real-time a wide audience of end users and stakeholders about the potential damaging shaking at the occurrence of an earthquake. We quantified the impact of hurricanes Irma and Maria on the PTWC initial tsunami warning capability for the Caribbean region after accounting for hurricane-related seismic station outages.

We use numerical simulations and sediment transportation models, and our modelling approach confirms that the beaches were significantly eroded predominantly during the first backwash phase. Although tsunami deposits are found on the island, we demonstrate that most of the sediment was deposited in the shallow coastal area, facilitating quick recovery of the beach. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.

The best performance is obtained when using both data. This study more discusses the fractal of aftershock characteristics in spatial distribution and fault dimension.


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The recent study didn't consider that the earthquake mechanism could affect the aftershock distribution. To conclude, we found scale invariance in the relationship between fault and aftershock spatial distribution. It also was controlled by the mechanism of earthquakes, either it was a regular or doublet earthquake.

By this way, case study computed the loss of lives and properties for each slope. Water levels in bays are affected by open-ocean changes and wind. Tides are more dampened in the bays than storm surges and sea level rise.

We compare observed and modeled levels with ocean conditions and combine them with analytical models. We consider the local setup, caused by wind along the bay. Spatial estimates of water level can inform decisions about bay flooding hazards. It is known that fragility functions reflect localities building design standards and topography and flow velocity is more important, as damage might occur before flow depth reaches its maximum value. This research demonstrates that it is possible to accurately predict building damage by considering related forces with high accuracy, including resistant force, based on building design standards.

This method will be useful for damage assessment in areas that have no experience of tsunamis. Nina I. Frolova, Valery I. Larionov, Jean Bonnin, Sergey P. Suchshev, Alexander Ugarov, and Nataliya Malaeva. The paper is devoted to the structure and content of impact data bases due to natural disasters and technological accidents. The application of the database for disaster risk assessment and management is highlighted. The special attention is paid to usage of impact data for calibration of earthquake loss models in order to increase the reliability of near real time estimates.

Shraddhanand Shukla, Kristi R. The region of southern Africa is prone to drought-led food insecurity events, as demonstrated by recent major drought event in — This study demonstrates that a recently developed NASA Hydrological Forecasting and Analysis System NHyFAS based rootzone soil moisture monitoring and forecasting products can effectively explain interannual variability in regional crop yield and identify below normal crop yield events hence support the early warning of food insecurity in this region.

Jianqiang Zhang, Cees J. The aim of this study is to investigate the differences in the mappable characteristics of earthquake-triggered and rainfall triggered landslides in terms of their frequency—area relationships, spatial distributions and relation with causal factors, as well as to evaluate whether separate susceptibility maps generated for specific landslide size and triggering mechanism are better than a generic landslide susceptibility assessment including all landslide sizes and triggers.

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In this paper we present an EM geophysics method designed for shallow purposes for determining the 3-D geometry of a sinkhole. Thanks to scuba divers we have a broad path they followed along the subterranean rivers. Our 3-D model can be correlated with those scuba diver paths.

Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody R. Day, and Haiganoush K. For 11 western US states we addressed gaps in existing wildfire risk assessments that do not explicitly consider cross-boundary fire transmission among major landowners and do not identify the sources of fire for exposed communities. Stochastic wildfire simulation outputs were post-processed in a geo-spatial framework. Our methods can be implemented across different regions of the world to inform fire management agency decisions on the locations of future fuel management projects.

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Koen D. Berends, Menno W. Straatsma, Jord J. Warmink, and Suzanne J. River flooding is a major safety concern. Sophisticated models are used to design ways to decrease flood risk, but until recently it was not feasible to calculate how uncertain these model predictions are. Using a new approach, we have now quantified the uncertainty of 12 interventions along the River Waal.

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Results show significant but not problematically high uncertainty. We demonstrate that the choice between interventions can be different when uncertainty is taken into account. In this study we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of from a meteorological perspective.

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This is done by studying observational constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small but positive role of climate change up to now in the forest fires in Sweden, but a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future. This is mainly caused by the higher temperatures projected in future climate. Huyck, Marleen C. Aerts, and Philip J. Large-scale risk assessments can be improved by a more direct relation between the type of exposed buildings and their flood impact. Compared to the common land-use-based approach, this model reflects heterogeneous structures and defines building-material-based vulnerability classes.

This approach is particularly interesting for areas with large variations of building types, such as developing countries and large scales, and enables vulnerability comparison across different natural disasters. Jannis M.